The Department of Defense, specifically the Space Systems Command (SSC) under the United States Air Force (USAF), is seeking innovative software solutions for the "Launch Cycle Initiation Detection" project as part of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. The objective is to develop a software capability that can automatically detect and notify the start of space launch cycles in real-time, integrating seamlessly with existing systems used by USSF operators and the Space Domain Awareness (SDA) Tap Lab. This capability is crucial for enhancing space operations and situational awareness, allowing for timely responses to launch activities. The solicitation is currently closed, with applications due by October 23, 2024, and further details can be found on the official SBIR website.

## Description

Launch cycles are activities and/or events that take place prior to and leading up to a launch event. Launch activities can vary widely in type and indication; everything from troop movement, vehicle movement, strategic posturing, and resource allocation can be included as a part of a launch cycle. A launch cycle can begin with little to no warning and can last minutes, hours, or days. The ability to detect and identify that start of a launch cycle provides an intrinsic value to the SDA community&rsquo;s ability to quickly search and acquire newly launched vehicles. The further left of launch the greater value to space operations. Having early notification of launch cycles will tip and que sensor owners to be on the ready for upcoming launch activities. Space Systems Command (SSC) Space Domain Awareness (SDA) Tap Lab is seeking solutions to provide a software capability that can automatically and in real-time detect and notify the start of a given space launch cycle. This task includes four subtasks; 1) process data from imagery (or other) sources; 2) Identify features in imagery (or other data types) that indicate launch cycle start; 3) Detect the identified indicators and associated launch cycle start; and 4) Predict the associated launch window.While the exact functionality and method is left to creative problem solving, solutions can look to possibly leverage techniques for indications and warnings that provide meaningful insight. Such techniques commonly use satellite imagery, weather data, pattern of life assessment, activity-based intelligence, and other open-source data.The software product must be able to be integrated into existing toolchains that are used by USSF operators and the SDA Tap Lab. As this capability is only one specific functionality to be used in conjunction with other tools to provide a holistic understanding of space domain awareness and space operations, it is pivotal that the solution be able to seamless integrate with existing systems through API call. The solution must also meet all development and operational requirements for system integration and use on classified systems. 

## Objective

Delivery of software capability that automatically identifies and detects the start of space launch cycles in real-time (or near real-time). Solution must be able to integrate with existing workflows through open API that can be leveraged with existing systems and meets development and operational environment requirements.

## Phase I

This topic is intended for technology proven ready to move directly into Phase II. Therefore, Phase I awards will not be made for this topic. The applicant is required to provide detail and documentation in the D2P2 proposal which demonstrates accomplishment of a &ldquo;Phase I-type&rdquo; effort, including a feasibility study. This includes determining, insofar as possible, the scientific and technical merit and feasibility of ideas appearing to have commercial potential. It must have validated the product-mission fit between the proposed solution and a potential Air Force and/or Space Force stakeholder. The applicant should have defined a clear, immediately actionable plan with the proposed solution and the DAF customer and end-user.The feasibility study should have:1. Clearly identified the potential stakeholders of the adapted solution for solving the Air Force and/or Space Force need(s).2. Described the pathway to integrating with DAF operations, to include how the applicant plans to accomplish core technology development, navigateapplicable regulatory processes, and integrate with other relevant systems and/or processes.3. Describe if and how the solution can be used by other DoD or Governmental customers. In addition to feasibility applicants, should demonstrate a framework design to use as proof of concept that can detect and notify operators of a start of a launch cycle. The tool should be able to accurately detect, identify, and locate the start of a launch cycle

## Phase II

Phase II will build upon the concept developed in the &quot;Phase I-type&quot; effort, with a focus on enhancing evaluation metrics, model performance, and expanding the scope of input data to further the analysis of launch events. Specifically, Phase II aims to refine the software capability to automatically detect and notify the start of space launch cycles in real-time or near real-time. This entails four key subtasks: processing data from imagery or other sources, identifying features indicative of launch cycle start, detecting these indicators, and predicting the associated launch window. While the exact methodology is open to creative problem-solving, solutions may leverage techniques such as indications and warnings using satellite imagery, weather data, pattern of life assessment, and activity-based intelligence. The refined software product must seamlessly integrate with existing toolchains used by USSF operators and the SDA Tap Lab, meeting all development and operational requirements for system integration and use on classified systems. Additionally, Phase II will focus on improving evaluation metrics such as accuracy, precision, and F1 score, while also expanding the breadth of input data to further enhance the scope of launch events being assessed.

## Phase III: Dual Use Applications

Phase III will concentrate on scaling the finalized model developed in Phase II to encompass the analysis of all launch events, significantly broadening its scope and utility. This expanded capability will enable comprehensive analysis of launch activities beyond the detection of launch cycles, enhancing space domain awareness and operational readiness. Additionally, Phase III will focus on further enhancing notification functionality to provide timely and actionable alerts regarding all significant launch events. This may involve the development of advanced notification systems capable of disseminating critical information to relevant stakeholders in real-time or near-real-time, facilitating prompt decision-making and response. Furthermore, Phase III will involve the integration of additional data sources and analytical techniques to enhance the accuracy and reliability of launch event analysis and notification capabilities. Collaboration with key stakeholders, including the Air Force, Space Force, and other governmental agencies, will be essential to ensure alignment with operational requirements and maximize the utility of the solution. Additionally, the solution developed in Phase III will have dual-use potential, providing valuable insights and capabilities that can benefit both military and civilian applications, thereby maximizing its societal and economic impact.

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