Open Topic for Historical Radiation Data Analysis for Enhanced Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) Modeling and Prediction

This government solicitation (MDA26TZ04-NP002) is an open topic issued by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) seeking advanced analytical techniques to process and interpret historical radiation data. The primary objective is to improve the accuracy and predictive capabilities of radiation models, enhancing sensor performance and spacecraft survivability for the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). By conducting rigorous statistical analyses of long-term radiation trends, this initiative aims to justify or reduce the need for costly and time-consuming physical radiation testing of microelectronics. Proposers must utilize open-literature sources—such as archived space-based measurements, ground-based test facility data, and legacy component performance records—to perform trend identification, correlation studies, predictive modeling (potentially incorporating machine learning), and uncertainty quantification. Phase I requires acquiring relevant datasets, conducting preliminary correlation studies, and demonstrating an initial predictive model applicable to Department of War (DoW) systems. Phase II focuses on refining these models, validating them with independent datasets, and integrating government test failure data. Beyond military space systems, Phase III commercial applications include safeguarding terrestrial assets, such as large computing centers, medical devices, and aviation electronics, which increasingly face single-event radiation effects. The project is restricted under ITAR/EAR export control regulations and requires a CMMC Level 1 certification.